Saturday, November 2, 2013

Whether you are a liberal or conservative if you're honest with yourself you have to admit that the extremes of either of these ways of running the United States are problematic. Moderation is the most acceptable policy, especially given that the country is split nearly 50/50.

I won't bother to write about the issues of a hard line conservative situation because that simply isn't where we are today. We are dancing quite solidly on the liberal side of the line, and continuing to the left day by day.

If you are aware of the whole spectrum  from extreme left to extreme right you should be quite nervous about leaving this situation to your children and grandchildren. If you're a liberal you must feel pretty good about the things that have changed since Obama took office. But even if you are a liberal you have to worry about how we are going to pay for things such as 45 million people receiving food stamps, or adding the Affordable Health Care Act costs to the already astronomically out of control Social Security and Medicare laws.

The country is now $17 trillion dollars in debt and there is no plan or budget in place to balance the budget much less pay down or pay off the debt. Business, both large and small, supply jobs. We already tax business so heavily that those that can move overseas have done so. Obama harps on the idea that the rich (who already pay the vast majority of the taxes in this country) should be taxed more. Rich people start companies which provide jobs. Tax the rich and you hurt the economy.

This week the media hapilly reported that for the first time in several years our defect dropped below one trillion dollars.  Just to make sure we are on the same level of understanding what the defect refers to is how much taxes the federal government takes in vs how much it spends. Even if our current defect is ONLY $680B it is still very bad news. Most of that improvement was accomplished by increasing taxes and cutting spending. Just to balance the budget by raising taxes would mean every man, woman, and child in the country would have to pay an additional $2,266 a year. How does that sound to you? And, don't be confused, that tax increase does zero to reduce the $17 trillion dollar debt.

There is a lot of misunderstanding about Social Security and how it is funded. The fact is that for decades the Social Security system has been taking money out of everyone's paychecks, and more money than is spent on those who collect SS. So the SS system has been running in the black, supposedly storing up money for the future when SS will have to increase payouts dramatically as the baby boomers retire. But no.

The federal government needs money and they way they get it is by selling treasury bills and bonds. The SS administration has been buying government debt for all of these years. There is no money to pay the SS back you understand, because the federal government already spends more than it takes in. So when SS needs their money back to send it out to those who are retiring how is the federal government going to get the money to pay the SS back - by borrowing of course.

The same story applies to Medicare, but the problem is actually worse there than with Social Security.

Obamacare is supposed to make health care affordable by helping people pay their premiums, and helping some pay their deductibles. That means the federal government is adding another budget item similar to Social Security and Medicare to the pile of bills we have to pay. Don't forget we are already spending more than taxes bring in, and we are already $17T in debt. Where's this money going to come from? Why by borrowing of course.

This is a crazy situation. Imagine that you have $50,000 a year income, but you spend $75,000 each year and you borrow the rest. Of course at some point nobody is going to lend you more but the federal government hasn't hit that obstruction yet. On top of adding $25,000 a year to your debt you already owe $10,000,000, way more than you could ever hope to pay off in your lifetime. There's no money to leave your kids either. If you want to send them to college you'll have to borrow.

With the federal government there are some hard walls we will eventually run into. And nobody knows how far off in the future this is going to happen but it will. Many think it is beginning to happen now.

First we will reach a point where nobody wants to buy federal debt. Other countries such as China will come to the point where they have to decide what to do. U.S. currency is the most stable in the world and we've never defaulted on our debt. But how stable is the U.S. if we continue to add trillions of dollars of debt. At some point China, and others, will decide it is too risky to buy United State debt. The day that happens will be a huge stock market crash and a much bigger depression than this country has ever experienced. It won't take China deciding to stop 100%, all it will take is a comment or a visible reduction. The only way America will then get people to buy our debt will be to promise to pay higher interest to them. That will further increase our debt and defect. It will be like a snowball rolling downhill gathering speed and size.

So for the upcoming elections even liberals should be strongly considering the notion that conservatives need to take over for a while. We need to make some changes that liberals will think are wrong but will have to agree must be changed to reverse the current trend to go deeper and deeper in debt.

I have little faith that liberals are going to make the right decision though. One reason is most people simply don't think about these big issues very often. Another reason is those that are on the receiving end of handouts like those handouts and don't want to see them go away or be reduced. The problem is those handouts will end, and they'll end abruptly. So if you're on the receiving end of handouts you're doomed one way or the other. Your best bet, if you have the health to do so, is get a job even if it pays less than your handout.

Conservatives scream about this all the time. Liberals respond with things like sob stories about those in need, all the while ignoring the long term consequences.

Along the way you may be surprised that conservatives want to help those in need as well. We just do it in different ways. Studies show that liberals don't give more to charity than conservatives. They are about equal. So don't go around thinking that conservatives take their money and just spend it on themselves.

Liberals unite, get wise, and vote in more moderate democratic candidates, or switch parties and vote for conservatives. You can return to your liberal ways later when we reverse the current trend which is going to be bad for everyone. We'll all be in need if we don't do something soon.


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