The future of roads with 100% autonomous vehicles.

The future of roads with 100% autonomous vehicles.

Consider this. Someday 100% of the vehicles on the roads of the earth will be self-driving, autonomous.  When that day comes the whole nature of the world's roads and cities will change dramatically.

For some reason the transition from gas powered cars to electric cars is coinciding with the transition to autonomous vehicles. Perhaps these two things are independent and they just happen to be emerging at the same time. Or perhaps the simplicity and longevity of electric cars triggers the push into autonomy.  Perhaps it is just that the computing power available today allows for autonomous cars and the electric car is not really associated.  Whatever the reason let's take a peek into what the future might hold.

There are predictions today that originate with autonomous cars, sending us into new territory. The widespread belief is these cars will be safer and will improve safety as time goes on. Okay that may be a good enough reason to move ahead but other factors begin to emerge as well. Many are predicting that individuals won't own cars but will call for a car which will take them to a destination, then move on to be used by other individuals. This leads to predictions that the world will only need about 10-20% of the number of cars today to move people. Today most cars sit parked 95% of the time. All of that can be used when a driver is no longer needed. The car can go off by itself.

What happens then when 100% of the vehicles on the road are self-driving. Well we won't need traffic signals at intersections because the cars will be able to see both ahead and around corners. The cars will communicate with each other. They won't have to stop at intersections, just coordinate so two streams of cars can pass through each other like marching bands at 1/2 time at football games. Cars won't be parked along the side of roads because they will all be in action, or at least they can move away to wait in some area where they aren't blocking traffic. The whole flow of cars will be so well coordinated that road use will be extremely efficient. Less road lanes will be needed because the typical morning traffic jams simply won't occur. The construction of additional lanes will cease, and in some cases extra unneeded lanes may actually be cut away and eliminated because they aren't needed.

Garages won't have cars so they may not be needed. Parking structures will be torn down making room for other uses. Of course, due to the transition to 100% electric cars, gas stations will be demolished, again making room for other uses. Electric charge stations need not be grouped together like gas station pumps are. They can be where needed and the cars will self-charge.

Some people say all of this may be workable for cities but those who live on rural farms won't be able to give up their vehicles. They wouldn't want to wait 30 minutes for a car to arrive. They'd also still need their farm pick-up trucks and tow vehicles. I certainly don't have all the answers but consider this. Many small to mid-sized farms don't have their own farm equipment such as cultivators. They share those machines with other farmers. They are actually one step ahead already. Have you looked at farm equipment these days. Some large farm machines are already autonomous!

I wonder how I'm going to get my boat from my side yard to the launch ramp and launch the boat. Believe me that is a simple operation for the right autonomous vehicle. Imagine not having to let someone off at the dock to go fetch the tow vehicle. Just call for it on your phone and it arrives and backs itself into the water for you.

The biggest problem I have with all of this is... I really enjoy driving.

DSLR future

I'm an amateur photographer. Lately I've been observing the advances in digital camera design and features. Much like a transition in the automotive industry the camera industry is also going through a sea change.

In a very rough sense there are two types of digital cameras. 1) The Digital Single Lens Reflex (DSLR) and 2) Mirror-less. The truth is the vast majority of cameras in the world are mirror-less. They have come in the form of pocket cameras and sell phones among others. But most Professional photographers consider DSLR type cameras to be superior. Until recently.

While high end interchangeable lens cameras have been around for years it was really Sony that has pushed the field forward causing bigger manufacturers Canon and Nikon to step into the Frey.

Sony first came out with the A55 "mirror less" camera in October of 2010. That camera did have a translucent mirror but it stayed in place and didn't flip up and down during photo shooting. A few models down the line and the translucent mirror was gone. Sone stopped making DSLR cameras. The early models certainly weren't up to DSLR standards but they did have some interesting features.

Sony's early mirror-less cameras showed that the technology did exist to eliminate the mirror, to focus using the camera sensor, to have very fast burst mode, and it brought Electronic View Finders (EVF) into play. At first the EVF was widely rejected and despised as people wanted to see an optical image through the lens. But over the next few years the advantages, and quality, of the EVF began to turn heads. Today an increasing segment of the photographic community sees the EVF as superior.

Sony really began to attract photographers from Canon and Nikon with the introduction of better and better models. Sony shocked the world by introducing the A9, a high end camera that clearly can compete with the best DSLRs on the market. The Sony A7 model III at $2,000 shook up the camera market by offering quality and features of high end DSLRs for about 1/2 the price. While most photographers stuck with their Canon or Nikon equipment a significant number of pros switched to Sony. Canon and Nikon had to do something to stop the bleeding.

By September of 2018 both Canon and Nikon introduced high end mirror-less cameras. Most people feel both manufacturers short-changed those designs so as not to hurt sales of their top of the line DSLRs. They were both smart in that their customers can use large numbers of their Canon or Nikon lenses on the new cameras. Canon and Nikon's new mirror-less cameras necessarily have prices close to the Sony A7III. This, no doubt, will eat into Canon and Nikon profits. The high end camera market has been shrinking for the past few years. This puts pressure on all manufacturers.

I believe as Canon and Nikon customers sort out the advantages of mirror-less, and push Canon and Nikon to add more features the mirror-less market will slowly nudge out DSLR market share. In some number of years DSLRs will shrink to be a small portion of the pie. The advantages of mirror-less are simply too good to ignore.

To additionally upset the mix Panasonic has announced their entry into the full frame mirror-less market. Panasonic has a reputation of offering some strong contenders in the micro 4/3 market with best in class in body stabilization and exceptional 4K video capability. Panasonic has some work to do to catch up with fast accurate focus though. But one thing is Panasonic doesn't have to protect a full frame DSLR market like Canon and Nikon.

It's going to be very interesting to see the shifts in the full frame interchangeable lens camera market over the next few years.